The National Weather Service has released its 2022-23 Winter Outlook for the United States. The outlook is based on several dynamical and statistical models along with ongoing climate trends, and specifically relates the three-month period of December-January-February (DJF).
The outlook can be viewed at: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina
Closer to home, the outlook calls for...
North Central Kansas: For temperature, there are no strong signals to favor either warmer or colder than normal, therefore the outlook is for equal chances of above, below or near normal temperatures. Normal variability of temperatures should be anticipated.
For precipitation, signals lean toward slightly better odds for drier than normal conditions.
South Central Nebraska: For temperature, there are no strong signals to favor either warmer or colder than normal, therefore the outlook is for equal chances of above, below or near normal temperatures. Normal variability of temperatures should be anticipated.
For precipitation, there are no strong trends to favor above, below or near normal precipitation. The normal variability of precipitation should be anticipated.
La Nina is known for its variability on the Central Plains, which makes it hard to “fit” an entire winter outlook into a specific above or below normal category. Typically, La Nina conditions favor near normal to slightly below normal precipitation over the course of the winter, which is the favored outcome across north central Kansas. However, the middle part of the winter, from mid-to-late January through late February, can often be a snowier time, though the snow tends to be drier in nature (less overall moisture volume). Though not certain for the winter ahead, La Nina can lead to more light snow events (few inches) which can add up over the winter as opposed to large, heavy, high moisture-laden snow events.
Temperature trends usually suggest wide variability from month-to-month (or more often), including more frequent bouts with brief cold spells which are followed by periods of warmer than normal temperatures. In the end, temperatures throughout the winter should be expected to be about normal, but that may vary highly depending upon location and potential impacts from snow cover. Keep in mind, Nebraska and Kansas can often share in both the colder side of a La Nina winter and the warmer side.
This year’s outlook is largely weighted on the impacts of La Nina conditions in the central Pacific Ocean along with the ongoing warmer and drier than normal trends across much of the United States. La Nina conditions occur when the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific region is slightly below normal. The change in sea surface temperatures can impact atmospheric circulations across the United States and beyond. The La Nina conditions will actually peak this fall, but linger through the winter months. Long term outlooks point toward the La Nina conditions weakening by spring.
No matter how the winter turns out, now is the time to prepare for anything Mother Nature may have in store.
Reader Comments(0)